In school, we learned a great mnemonic device to solve complex math problems—PEMDAS, more commonly recalled as Please Excuse My Dear Aunt Sally. It reminds us to address what’s in parentheses first, then the exponents. Follow with multiplication and division, and conclude with addition and subtraction.
Mathematicians figured out the importance of establishing the order of operations before tackling multiple calculations in a single equation. If your priorities aren’t in order, the whole equation falls apart and you can end up with a “solution” that isn’t a solution at all.
Electric cooperatives need an order of operations of our own as we calculate a balance between the increased electrification of our lives and the need to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels. We can’t meet the growing demand for electricity while simultaneously shutting down power plants—not without rolling blackouts and sky-high power bills.
Reducing our reliance on fossil fuels such as coal and natural gas is often referred to as decarbonization. It’s an equation utility leaders have been trying to solve for a long time. Here in South Carolina, decarbonization has led to the planned retirement of coal-fired power plants, increased investment in natural gas-fired plants (which produce about half the carbon emissions of their coal counterparts) and the buildout of renewable energy projects such as utility-scale solar farms.
The process has come with setbacks and challenges, such as the ill-fated attempt to expand the V.C. Summer Nuclear Power Station in Fairfield County. That project was expected to generate carbon-free power for decades before its abrupt cancellation in 2017.
In spite of such setbacks, South Carolina utilities have made great progress in reducing carbon emissions.
For example, in 2005, 79% of the power South Carolina’s cooperatives delivered to their members was generated by coal-fired power plants. Today, we have cut that number to 31% by replacing coal-fired generation with nuclear, natural gas and renewables.
In isolation, that would be great news. But meanwhile, the demand for electricity keeps rising. Technology advancements are producing appliances and devices that are more energy efficient, but as a society, we are using more of them than ever before. And now, more of us are driving electric vehicles (EVs) and charging them at home. Charging two EVs roughly doubles the peak electric demand of the average house.
The increasing adoption of EVs can significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector, which is a major contributor to overall global emissions. However, the growing demand for electricity to power EVs puts pressure on the electrical grid and requires investments in new infrastructure and technology.
It is becoming clear that we can’t afford to retire any more power plants, even those that burn fossil fuels, until we have reliable new sources of power to replace them. As much as we appreciate renewables and have made investments in solar projects, we also need to be able to produce electricity at nighttime and on cloudy days.
If we get our order of operations wrong at this critical moment, the power grid could run out of juice. Successfully balancing decarbonization and electrification will be challenging. We can’t foresee global events that might affect energy costs. We can’t forecast the political winds that dictate government funding, policies and regulations. We don’t know what technological advancements are on the horizon.
Despite this uncertainty, we must make important decisions now that will determine our future outcomes.
As cooperatives plan for the future, it’s vital we establish our order of operations. As with any problem that electric cooperatives face, we will work tirelessly to ensure the solution is what’s best for our members.
Mike Couick is president and CEO of The Electric Cooperatives of South Carolina, Inc., the statewide association of not-for-profit electric cooperatives.