Mike Couick
It’s interesting to look back at what previous generations presumed our lives might be like today. Some predictions are laughably farfetched—domesticated whales would transport us through the seas, our homes would fly to new locations and (perhaps the most ridiculous) we’d no longer drink coffee.
Some are right on the money.
In 1921, engineering wizard Charles Steinmetz, whose mathematical theories on alternating current helped foster the expansion of electric power, had some surprisingly accurate predictions about the role of electricity a century into his future. He envisioned that electricity would allow us to control the temperature of our homes while being entertained by a “radio-receiving” apparatus. Sounds pretty nice.
He also predicted that by 2021, electric vehicles would be affordable and ubiquitous. His prognostication may come to fruition soon.
Over the last few months, major automobile manufacturers have announced ambitious goals for the production of electric vehicles. General Motors plans to sell only emission-free vehicles by 2035, an aspiration promoted in last month’s Super Bowl commercials featuring a burly and surly Will Ferrell. The ads served notice to Norway—a nation where over half of the vehicles sold are electric—that the U.S. (with our current 4% electric vehicle market share) is coming for them.
Other manufacturers have similar objectives. Ford says it will invest $22 billion in electric vehicles by 2025. Volkswagen intends to launch 70 new pure electric models by 2030. BMW announced a plan to double its sales of fully electric vehicles, and Tesla, the original “status” brand in the electric vehicle market, plans to offer an affordable $25,000 model by 2023. Volvo aims for half its vehicle sales to be pure electric models by 2025.
With manufacturers starting the engine, it’s easy to predict that widespread adoption of electric vehicles can happen within the next decade, even in South Carolina, where less than 1% of drivers currently own an electric vehicle.
While our state is unlikely to keep pace with California, where they hope to be selling only emission-free vehicles by 2035, it’s reasonable to assume that electric vehicle market growth will accelerate here as well. Between 2018 and 2019, the number of electric vehicles registered in South Carolina doubled. If that trend continues, there will be growing pressure to develop sufficient charging and power-delivery infrastructure for electric vehicle owners.
Currently, there are more than 300 public charging stations in South Carolina, mostly in and around population centers. Of the 678 outlets at those fueling stops, 121 are Level 3 direct-current chargers, capable of completely charging the batteries in most electric cars in about 80 minutes. When in use, each of these rapid chargers draws 50 kilowatts or more of electricity—the equivalent demand from about 20 mid-sized homes. In contrast, the more prominent, but less powerful, Level 2 chargers—drawing the equivalent of about three mid-sized homes—require six to 15 hours to deliver a full charge.
At present, most electric vehicle owners use public charging stations to “top off” batteries on longer trips, preferring to completely charge their vehicles at home using their own Level 2 chargers or Level 1 chargers. Even Level 1 chargers, which only add about 2 to 5 miles of range to a vehicle per hour, place a higher demand on the power grid.
What happens when hundreds, and someday thousands, of members of a local cooperative are charging their vehicles at home or at cooperative-served public charging stations? It could make a big impact on the cooperative’s overall load and peak demand.
The rise of electric vehicles presents both a challenge and an opportunity for utilities in South Carolina and across the country. Your electric cooperative is monitoring and analyzing the growth of the electric vehicle market and developments in battery technology in order to better understand how we can serve our members, today and well into the future.
We may not be where Charles Steinmetz thought we would be, but I think he’d be proud of how far we’ve come.